Morning after thoughts

Tough night for Obama. Hard to say whether it was a good night or not for the Democrats, but I'm inclined to think not.

If I'm a superdelegate, I am feeling no rush to move anywhere at this point. There will be another intense 6 weeks of campaigning to do what it should -- help the American people sort through these two candidates. I feel that, as of right now, Hillary actually has the tactical advantage, and she will solidify that advantage with a win in PA. This race will be determined by the superdelegates, among whom she has deeper and stronger connections. He has a good case to make with regard to a pledged delegate lead that I don't think that Hillary can overcome, but she has a good case to make with regard to her having won almost all of the big states, them having split the purple states, her momentum in finishin stronger, and her maybe being tied in the popular vote. (Obama is only ahead 12.6 mil to 12.1 mil now.) The FL/MI issue could be both her salvation in terms of the numbers or a calamity in terms of how a credentials fight like that could tear the party apart and alienate the superdelegates. I have a feeling she is going to take a softer tone on that going forward without conceding the point.

Hard to know if this is good for the party or not. It's good that Obama is getting a close look. However, I'm not sure if his loss of inevitability will ultimately help him, by testing him against the type of attacks McCain will run at him, or will weaken him, by planting seeds of doubt in people's minds that McCain will later exploit. If I had to say, I think it's the latter. Hillary made some tough charges start to stick against Obama, or at least introduced enough doubt, and these next 6 weeks are going to be at least as hard-fought and nasty as what we've seen before. He's going to be much more nicked up before this is done, and he is going to have to take some of the existential questions about himself (like does he have the experience, who is he really, is there a "there there") head-on now. His answers so far haven't been good enough and/or have been drowned out in the metastory of Obama the rock star.

It will be interesting to watch if McCain keeps going after just Obama or goes after Clinton as well. That will give a read on which is the candidate they'd prefer to face. Dave I know is much more optimistic about the megatrends impacting November than I am. Obama and Clinton are both strong, but flawed candidates. I still think that Obama has enough substance to assuage people's concerns about him in the general and to be a more likely victor against McCain. Clinton certainly stacks up better against McCain on national security, but I still can't get past the fact that so many Americans have visceral dislike for her, which would push GOP turnout and tilt independents away from her. If Clinton does emerge and win in Nov, she will have Obama to thank. The coronation script that her campaign had written was much less effective than the fighter/comeback story she could tell if she gets past Obama.